NJ Transit Capacity Numbers

In 2014, NJ Transit published a Commuter Rail Fleet Strategy in which the company details its reasoning for favoring Bombardier Multilevels over single-level cars. I skimmed it when it came out and recently went over it again. In brief, NJ Transit itself shows that replacing single-level trains with Multilevels increases the seat count by a much smaller margin than many have been led to believe.

The analysis finds that a 12-car Multilevel electric multiple unit (EMU) set, the power units for which were ordered recently, would provide just a 12 % increase in seats over 12 single-level EMU cars. This increase is less than the 20% that I assumed in my previous post, and there is ample reason to believe that this is not enough to make up for the increased travel time. Recently, I had the luck of catching a rush-hour express from New York Penn to Little Silver. I took train 3255, which was run with a locomotive and Multilevels. With a dramatically reduced passenger load, the trip took 1:10 to reach Little Silver from Manhattan, whereas you would be lucky to make it in under 1:20 with normal ridership. With NJ Transit rail service largely back to pre-pandemic levels, this dramatic change in runtime, a cut of around 15%, likely stems from the lack of passengers turning over at each station. I am fully aware that this is one anecdote, but it is consistent with the outcome of introducing bilevels on Paris’ RER A: a capacity reduction from 30 to 24 trains per hour on its central trunk.

Fundamentally, Multilevels and other bilevels suffer from bottlenecks at the stairwells and doors that do not beset well-designed single level cars. Interior renovations to replace seats with standee space will not help a bilevel put through more passengers; they will just add more dwell time. Worse still, in part because they are designed to the FRA’s old crashworthiness rule, Multilevels add considerable deceleration and acceleration time per stop versus a modern EMU. Cars designed to the new rule, which would be much lighter, should be able to make the New York-Little Silver run in under an hour calling at every intermediate station.

The document makes a dubious claim that Multilevels are cheaper than single level EMUs. It posits that a single-level EMU would cost $5 million per car, or $15 million for a triplet, yet that a Multilevel triplet consisting of two unpowered cars sandwiching a power unit would cost $12.5 million. In contrast, the latest approved contract for 113 Multilevel cars, of which 58 are power units, averages $6 million per car. Its ten-year plan proposes acquisition of 720 Multilevel cars at an average of $4.5 million apiece. In contrast, the evidence suggests single-level EMUs would be far cheaper than $5 million apiece. Siemens recently supplied to London’s Thameslink system 66 -foot Class 700s for $2 million each; an 85-foot North American car should thus cost $2.5 million. A Buy America premium of 25%, which is the threshold beyond which the law allows waivers, brings the cost to $3.2 million apiece.

Don’t take my word that single-level trains are the way to go; NJ Transit’s own data will tell you itself. The company should read and review its own analysis, listen to its own crews, who rightly dislike bilevel trains, and open its eyes to what works in London and what has failed in Paris.